Before Black Friday (Sell-Off)
falling hardSaturday, 21 November 2026 to Thursday, 26 November 2026
Everyone knows Black Friday is coming: Lightning Rounds, flash SBCs, Best of TOTW. The market sells early to have coins ready.
What to do
Sell everything tradeable by Tuesday 24 Nov at the latest. Sit on coins. Don't panic-sell on Thursday — by then it's too late.
What actually worked in this phase
From the FC 26 season, every card from 5,000 coins up, bought and sold again after 7 days, after the 5 % EA tax. Buying at random in this phase returned -17.9 % on average. The percentages below were tested on cards that were not used to find the patterns.
- ▲cards on Thursdays: -8.8 %
- ▲cards on Thursdays that have been out for a long time: -8.8 %
- ▼Better left alone, cards on Saturdays, well below their high: -28.5 %
- ▼Better left alone, cards on Saturdays: -26.7 %
No buying strategy came out positive in this phase. The best move was to sit on your coins.
Key dates
- Thu 26 Nov Black Friday eve, usually the first Lightning Rounds
Market events in this phase
- Thu 26/11 Black Friday EvePanic selling ahead of the Lightning Rounds.
Expected daily move by card type
Baseline for an 85–87 rated card with normal hype, before day-of-week patterns and events.
| Gold (standard) | -1.4 % / day |
| Gold meta (in demand) | -1.7 % / day |
| Team of the Week / inform | -5.1 % / day |
| Promo card | -2 % / day |
| Icon | -3 % / day |
| Hero | -1.5 % / day |