The weekly rhythm
Whatever the season phase, the market follows the same beat every week. The table shows the typical daily move in percent that the model adds on top of the phase drift. The values are calibrated on the complete FC 26 season, not estimated. The key finding: a meta card costs 7 % less than the weekly average on Sunday and 6 % more on Wednesday. That is 13 percentage points of difference from nothing but picking the right day.
| Day | Gold meta | Promo card | Team of the Week / inform | Icon | What happens |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monday | +2.33 % | +3.62 % | +0.3 % | +0.47 % | The weekend reward packs have been sold off and supply drops. The demand comes from players building for the new week. |
| Tuesday | +4 % | -0.42 % | +1.32 % | +0.21 % | The quietest day. Barely any new cards, prices keep recovering. |
| Wednesday | -0.77 % | -1.5 % | +0.2 % | +0.4 % | New TOTW at 6 pm UK. The old informs go out of packs and climb, the new ones start high and fall. |
| Thursday | -3.21 % | -1.97 % | -0.05 % | +0.3 % | Division Rivals rewards flood the market. Prices are still high anyway, because a lot of people wait for promo Friday to sell. A good sell day. |
| Friday | -4 % | -4 % | -3.07 % | -1.97 % | Promo release at 6 pm UK. New cards are expensive, everything else dips. Lightning Rounds possible. |
| Saturday | -2.76 % | +1.51 % | +0.2 % | +0.09 % | Promo packs are opened in bulk and the Weekend League is running. The second cheapest day, and the sell-off carries on into Sunday. |
| Sunday | +3.87 % | +4 % | +1.12 % | +0.49 % | The low point of the week. Weekend League rewards and Squad Battles packs meet the fewest buyers. The best buy day, measured at 7 % below the weekly average. |
The standard weekly play
- Buy on Saturday and Sunday: promo packs and Weekend League rewards flood supply and push prices to their low for the week.
- Sell from Tuesday evening to Wednesday: the supply has been absorbed and prices peak right before the new TOTW.
- Be out before Thursday. From the Division Rivals rewards on Thursday and promo Friday it goes back down.
- Checked against FC 26: buying on Sunday and selling on Wednesday made 5.1 % on average after the 5 % EA tax, and every second trade was profitable. It is the only buy day that pays off on average.
- The other way round costs you: buying on Thursday and selling on Sunday lost 11.4 % after EA tax on average, and only one trade in five was profitable.
Exceptions
- Crash phases (Black Friday, TOTY, TOTS): the phase drift overrides the weekly pattern. Cycle first, week second.
- Promo cards: they fall during their first week in packs whatever the day. See the age profile in the forecast.
- Lightning Rounds: unannounced, they push every price down for hours. A chance to buy, not a time to sell.
All card types in the model: Gold (standard), Gold meta (in demand), Team of the Week / inform, Promo card, Icon, Hero. Forecast for your card